Fri, Jan 5, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 5, Ottawa Senators 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 213 | 313 | 09 | 00 | 535 |
| OTT | 112 | 113 | 317 | 11 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29SJSTomas HertlSHAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 10:05OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Mark Stone, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 12:56SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joakim Ryan, Jannik Hansen · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 2:02SJSChris TierneyPPAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Tim Heed · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–1
- P2 3:53SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 4:59OTTMark StonePPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 13:27SJSTomas HertlAssists: Logan Couture, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 0:26OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.01 xG5–3
- P3 8:25OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 10:48OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Matt Duchene, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.03 xG5–5
- OT 0:07OTTMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:01SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:17OTTJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:29OTTRyan Dzingel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:44SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:41OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Couture – Hertl – Labanc12:14
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Donskoi – Tierney – Karlsson2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier15:47
xG 0.41–0.62 (40%)attempts 21–25goals 0–1
- Boedker – Donskoi – Tierney10:26
xG 0.10–0.59 (14%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Heed – Ryan10:16
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Burns – Dillon18:58
xG 0.40–1.00 (29%)attempts 22–22goals 1–3
- Vlasic – Braun22:44
xG 0.35–1.08 (25%)attempts 20–31goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Stone – Dzingel14:23
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene15:18
xG 1.03–0.62 (62%)attempts 25–24goals 2–1
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau11:19
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Chabot15:32
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci14:25
xG 0.82–0.47 (64%)attempts 19–25goals 2–2
- Oduya – Harpur9:58
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).