Fri, Jan 5, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 016 | 113 | 111 | 240 |
| DET | 15 | 16 | 28 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Mike Green · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 7:08DETTomas TatarAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 19:58FLAMike MathesonAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 3:19FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 8:03DETAnthony ManthaPPGWGAssists: Martin Frk, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 15:22DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Danny DeKeyser · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:13DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:35FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:14FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:03FLAKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:03DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov10:58
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Barkov3:16
xG 0.05–0.03 (66%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brickley – Trocheck – Malgin9:49
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley6:19
xG 0.07–0.09 (42%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson17:10
xG 0.72–0.19 (79%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Yandle – Ekblad17:41
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
- Petrovic – Weegar13:12
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Athanasiou – Larkin8:33
xG 0.46–0.31 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi8:27
xG 0.23–0.28 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Frk – Athanasiou – Mantha3:16
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm10:53
xG 0.05–0.37 (12%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser13:57
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Kronwall – Jensen10:24
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ouellet2:58
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).