Fri, Jan 5, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 19 | 110 | 329 |
| WPG | 211 | 18 | 110 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:27WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:40BUFMarco ScandellaAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 15:46WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Andrew Copp, Matt Hendricks · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 6:06WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 18:03BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Jacob Josefson, Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.29 xG2–3
- P3 0:25WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–4
- P3 12:17BUFScott WilsonAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:20WPGJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:54BUFSam Reinhart: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:37WPGBryan Little: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:08BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:37BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:25WPGKyle Connor: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:57WPGBlake Wheeler: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 14:17WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:28BUFJohan Larsson: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Wilson – Rodrigues6:22
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Josefson – Nolan – Larsson6:49
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Kane11:40
xG 0.57–0.63 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Eichel7:37
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Bogosian9:53
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Beaulieu2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen14:32
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Perreault – Ehlers9:48
xG 0.80–0.28 (74%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Lowry – Armia – Copp11:30
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Matthias – Dano2:52
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Connor – Laine9:17
xG 0.13–0.74 (15%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot11:47
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Myers – Kulikov11:05
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey13:13
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 8–14goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).