Sat, Jan 6, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 014 | 016 | 18 | 138 |
| DAL | 311 | 19 | 113 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:21DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:54DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 16:32DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 4:27DALMattias JanmarkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 2:04EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 10:04DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Tyler Seguin, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:20DALGreg Pateryn: Holding2 min
- P1 3:46EDMAndrej Sekera: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:29DALMartin Hanzal: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:14DALTyler Pitlick: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 9:26EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:26DALDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:35EDMLeon Draisaitl: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Khaira – Draisaitl6:08
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi13:38
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Nugent-Hopkins – Strome10:34
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Letestu – Slepyshev – Caggiula4:44
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Benning13:15
xG 0.67–0.55 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Larsson – Nurse14:38
xG 0.13–0.65 (17%)attempts 8–19goals 0–2
- Russell – Klefbom15:48
xG 0.60–1.24 (33%)attempts 18–20goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin9:55
xG 1.33–0.32 (81%)attempts 21–13goals 2–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Janmark8:07
xG 0.37–0.07 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa12:32
xG 0.53–0.70 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Shore – Elie8:29
xG 0.04–0.45 (8%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell12:31
xG 1.10–0.39 (74%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn16:35
xG 0.84–0.76 (52%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
- Johns – Honka12:26
xG 0.30–0.69 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).