Sat, Jan 6, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 112 | 08 | 08 | 128 |
| BOS | 58 | 213 | 09 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14BOSPatrice BergeronSHAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 5:43BOSRiley NashGWGAssists: Kevan Miller, David Backes · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 7:09CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Noah Hanifin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 9:04BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Danton Heinen · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P1 10:22BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–4
- P1 14:34BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.07 xG1–5
- P2 5:36BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
- P2 10:45BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.12 xG1–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:20BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:01BOSTim Schaller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 8:39CARNoah Hanifin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:09BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:10CARJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Skinner – Rask5:31
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – McGinn2:52
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe5:18
xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho2:15
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Fleury10:50
xG 0.22–0.16 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Pesce – Hanifin4:56
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Slavin – van Riemsdyk11:45
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:44
xG 0.74–0.15 (83%)attempts 14–3goals 3–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari11:40
xG 0.47–0.09 (84%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Backes – Nash – Heinen11:22
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Krejci – Spooner – DeBrusk11:56
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy14:11
xG 0.74–0.27 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo15:14
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy2:49
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).