Sat, Jan 6, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 010 | 111 | 113 | 02 | 1 | 236 |
| TOR | 09 | 015 | 27 | 05 | 2 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:59VANBrock BoeserAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 6:34VANSam GagnerPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 8:23TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 12:37TORTyler BozakAssists: Morgan Rielly, Travis Dermott · Snap, 0.31 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 2. VAN Sam Gagner scored
- 3. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 4. VAN Brock Boeser stopped
- 5. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 6. VAN Thomas Vanek stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:57TORFrederik Andersen: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:43VANErik Gudbranson: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:36VANMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:16VANHenrik Sedin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:53TORMatt Martin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:31TORRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:27VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Gagner – Boeser13:24
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Chaput – Gaunce – Virtanen7:28
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Virtanen3:02
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Goldobin7:58
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pouliot5:22
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Edler – Pouliot3:02
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Stecher6:17
xG 0.27–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Brown – Gauthier5:28
xG 0.13–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:36
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri12:26
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews13:46
xG 0.55–0.72 (43%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Dermott2:01
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Rielly14:46
xG 0.69–0.66 (51%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Polak – Dermott8:23
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).