Sat, Jan 6, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 011 | 210 | 229 |
| CGY | 217 | 07 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:51CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 8:35CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 2:56ANAJakob SilfverbergSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 6:50ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 19:44CGYDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Micheal Ferland, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 16:44CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:44ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:03CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:22ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:36CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:56CGYSean Monahan: Interference2 min
- P2 19:00CGYGarnet Hathaway: Instigator2 min
- P2 19:00CGYGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:00CGYSam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:00ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:00CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:00ANADerek Grant: Interference2 min
- P2 19:00ANADerek Grant: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:53CGYMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:53ANAFrancois Beauchemin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:53ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:47ANAAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell7:49
xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Henrique – Silfverberg2:55
xG 0.18–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Ritchie2:28
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Shaw – Ritchie2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:25
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Montour2:10
xG 0.04–0.20 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler15:10
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:22
xG 0.70–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett6:38
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Stajan – Lazar – Mangiapane5:21
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backlund – Tkachuk12:43
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton17:01
xG 1.03–0.55 (65%)attempts 26–10goals 2–0
- Stone – Kulak10:21
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Brodie13:07
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).