Sun, Jan 7, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 111 | 08 | 131 |
| PHI | 05 | 218 | 26 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:50BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 3:42PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Scott Laughton, Jori Lehtera · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:17PHISean CouturierPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 18:45PHISean CouturierENAssists: Jakub Voracek, Michael Raffl · Snap, 0.68 xG1–3
- P3 19:27PHIIvan ProvorovENAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:00PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:47PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:29BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P2 1:27PHIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:56BUFScott Wilson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:35PHIRobert Hagg: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:35BUFEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:31BUFJason Pominville: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – O'Reilly – Girgensons10:22
xG 0.32–0.13 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Rodrigues2:12
xG 0.05–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Wilson – Rodrigues6:58
xG 0.45–0.66 (40%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Josefson – Larsson8:58
xG 0.06–0.31 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – McCabe12:30
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Gorges – Bogosian13:00
xG 0.27–0.23 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen15:58
xG 0.21–0.78 (21%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Weal – Patrick9:11
xG 0.69–0.04 (94%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny12:56
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl10:33
xG 0.15–0.20 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Goulbourne4:51
xG 0.10–0.52 (16%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg13:52
xG 0.68–0.22 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov15:20
xG 0.41–0.20 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Manning – Gudas13:31
xG 0.58–0.53 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).