Sun, Jan 7, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
St. Louis Blues 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 217 | 18 | 02 | 334 |
| WSH | 18 | 06 | 218 | 11 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:15WSHBrett ConnollyPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:18STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Joel Edmundson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 5:02STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 8:00WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 10:49WSHLars EllerAssists: T.J. Oshie, Madison Bowey · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 15:51STLCarl GunnarssonAssists: Patrik Berglund, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 4:17WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:35STLKyle Brodziak: Holding2 min
- P1 11:58STLCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:18WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:23WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:57STLPatrik Berglund: Holding2 min
- P3 7:57STLJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Tarasenko – Barbashev14:07
xG 1.14–0.32 (78%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Thompson7:05
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Sobotka – Schenn11:12
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak4:14
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko18:43
xG 1.14–0.39 (74%)attempts 27–14goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:19
xG 1.54–0.91 (63%)attempts 24–21goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo9:40
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Connolly6:51
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Connolly4:31
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Smith-Pelly8:56
xG 0.38–0.42 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Beagle – Chiasson – Burakovsky7:02
xG 0.05–0.19 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Bowey10:14
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson5:04
xG 0.08–0.19 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Carlson – Djoos12:56
xG 0.10–0.76 (12%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).