Mon, Jan 8, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 014 | 24 | 14 | 333 |
| TOR | 08 | 214 | 013 | 02 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:09TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Roman Polak, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 16:02TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 15:25CBJNick FolignoAssists: Jordan Schroeder, Markus Nutivaara · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 17:13CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 3:11CBJArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:55TORRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:13TORNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:57TORTravis Dermott: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:26CBJJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:39CBJMatt Calvert: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Panarin – Dubois14:15
xG 1.08–0.87 (56%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Jenner2:29
xG 0.10–0.00 (96%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Bjorkstrand3:24
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Sedlak – Milano4:48
xG 0.20–0.16 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Nutivaara12:47
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski19:02
xG 1.10–1.00 (52%)attempts 27–18goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard2:05
xG 0.02–0.04 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Brown – Gauthier3:20
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown2:32
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:16
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri12:49
xG 0.65–0.62 (51%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Dermott14:02
xG 0.79–0.61 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Borgman2:59
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Polak – Borgman8:00
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).