Tue, Jan 9, 2018·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Florida Panthers 7, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 215 | 312 | 29 | 736 |
| STL | 27 | 19 | 114 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48STLPaul StastnyAssists: Joel Edmundson, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 8:05STLColton ParaykoAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 9:14FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Keith Yandle, Denis Malgin · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 16:57FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 4:17STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 12:23FLARadim VrbataAssists: Connor Brickley, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 15:55FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P2 16:37FLAVincent TrocheckGWGAssists: Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 13:02FLAColton SceviourSHAssists: Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–3
- P3 17:19STLTage ThompsonAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.15 xG6–4
- P3 17:56FLAVincent TrocheckENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.69 xG7–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:15STLScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:00STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:23STLRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:23FLAMicheal Haley: Embellishment2 min
- P1 12:27STLJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:27FLAJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:39STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:39FLAConnor Brickley: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:59FLAMark Pysyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:29FLARadim Vrbata: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:26
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- McGinn – Bjugstad – Trocheck6:34
xG 0.34–0.16 (67%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley6:52
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Brickley – Bjugstad – Trocheck2:31
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson14:38
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 20–13goals 0–2
- Yandle – Ekblad14:51
xG 0.60–0.58 (51%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Petrovic – Weegar15:52
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Schenn – Thompson8:58
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Upshall – Paajarvi – Sundqvist6:36
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Barbashev9:46
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 2–1
- Steen – Brodziak – Berglund9:28
xG 0.29–0.55 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Bortuzzo5:00
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson5:17
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo7:18
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).