Fri, Jan 12, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 17 | 28 | 427 |
| CAR | 110 | 118 | 111 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Justin Williams, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 7:25WSHLars EllerPPAssists: Jakub Vrana, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 0:28WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 8:50CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:49CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Lee Stempniak, Haydn Fleury · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 16:52WSHBrett ConnollyUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 19:58WSHJay BeagleGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:10WSHBrett Connolly: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:28CARKlas Dahlbeck: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:28CARHaydn Fleury: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:37CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 8:45WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:11WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:24WSHJohn Carlson: Holding2 min
- P3 4:03CARNoah Hanifin: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:10WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Chiasson – Stephenson7:23
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Smith-Pelly12:36
xG 0.83–0.74 (53%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Connolly10:25
xG 0.19–0.50 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana9:34
xG 0.14–1.04 (12%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Djoos12:55
xG 1.07–0.66 (62%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bowey10:17
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov17:20
xG 0.62–0.86 (42%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Rask – McGinn10:18
xG 1.15–0.39 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho12:25
xG 0.81–0.37 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Wallmark9:09
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Kruger – Di Giuseppe – Jooris6:34
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin15:11
xG 1.02–0.55 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Faulk – Slavin16:42
xG 1.16–0.74 (61%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Dahlbeck – Fleury7:37
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).