Sat, Jan 13, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 09 | 014 | 130 |
| PIT | 212 | 116 | 18 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Carl Hagelin, Olli Maatta · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:36DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 16:35PITPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 2:08PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 3:31PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.27 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:36PITDominik Simon: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:46PITJake Guentzel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:31PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:56DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:41PITDominik Simon: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:03DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
- P2 7:39PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:26PITJamie Oleksiak: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:56DETTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P3 2:27DETNick Jensen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:24DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P3 12:39PITOlli Maatta: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha4:10
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin4:44
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Bertuzzi4:42
xG 0.04–0.20 (17%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi3:23
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Jensen3:00
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser6:09
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser6:48
xG 0.21–0.47 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Sprong – Simon8:36
xG 0.76–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin5:09
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Kessel – Guentzel – Sheary4:20
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Kessel3:27
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Maatta12:47
xG 1.19–0.35 (77%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Oleksiak10:51
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:04
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).