Sat, Jan 13, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 211 | 28 | 525 |
| NJD | 113 | 15 | 111 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:35PHISean CouturierAssists: Jordan Weal, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 1:46NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Will Butcher, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 11:53PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 18:16PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 4:28PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.38 xG4–2
- P3 12:04PHIMichael RafflAssists: Jakub Voracek, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–2
- P3 19:15NJDDrew StaffordPPAssists: Damon Severson, John Moore · Snap, 0.31 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:37PHIBrandon Manning: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:43PHIValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:29PHIAndrew MacDonald: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:37PHINolan Patrick: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:35PHINolan Patrick: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:24NJDJohn Moore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:58NJDBrian Gibbons: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:17PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:51PHIRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny11:46
xG 0.78–0.23 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Goulbourne4:42
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Patrick7:20
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl11:21
xG 0.19–0.50 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Manning17:18
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Hagg – Provorov10:19
xG 0.68–0.68 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Manning – Gudas2:17
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Gibbons – Coleman5:57
xG 0.54–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Wood – Zacha9:17
xG 0.67–0.16 (80%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier9:27
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Zajac – Johansson – Palmieri9:30
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher8:21
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Moore2:06
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Vatanen2:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).