Sat, Jan 13, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Edmonton Oilers 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 012 | 111 | 16 | 11 | 330 |
| VGK | 08 | 213 | 015 | 00 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:01EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 9:56VGKReilly SmithUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 19:53VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 3:29EDMDrake CaggiulaAssists: Patrick Maroon, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 0:53EDMDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Drake Caggiula, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:53EDMAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 5:18EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:02VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:47EDMMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:48EDMOscar Klefbom: Interference2 min
- P2 13:39VGKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:39EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:41EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P2 16:55VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:14EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:05VGKWilliam Karlsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid8:55
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Maroon – McDavid – Caggiula5:41
xG 0.08–0.09 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Strome – Caggiula3:04
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi3:58
xG 0.01–0.11 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse12:16
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Klefbom – Benning11:39
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Russell – Klefbom2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Perron – Haula9:15
xG 0.56–0.21 (72%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch6:27
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek5:32
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:03
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore15:16
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Hunt7:04
xG 0.17–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt12:27
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).