Sat, Jan 13, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 25 | 07 | 210 | 422 |
| LAK | 07 | 08 | 210 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:14ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 18:50ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Ondrej Kase · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 2:10ANAOndrej KaseGWGAssists: Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 8:32LAKNicholas ShoreAssists: Christian Folin, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 13:46LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Derek Forbort, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:32ANACorey PerryENAssists: Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:29LAKKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:29ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:31LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:31ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:33LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:33ANANick Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:41ANAAndrew Cogliano: Interference2 min
- P1 17:31LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:00ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:50LAKDerek Forbort: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:14
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boll – Wagner4:50
xG 0.01–0.06 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase10:17
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell15:07
xG 0.73–0.85 (46%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Fowler16:05
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Montour12:37
xG 0.31–0.52 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Manson – Lindholm17:35
xG 0.37–0.62 (38%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Lewis – Shore3:25
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Pearson – Kempe5:52
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Clifford – Andreoff3:51
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo12:30
xG 0.59–0.70 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort6:20
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Doughty – Gravel12:40
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Martinez – Folin2:55
xG 0.06–0.05 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).