Sun, Jan 14, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 213 | 07 | 08 | 228 |
| PIT | 113 | 218 | 216 | 547 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Carl Hagelin, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 15:17NYRMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 19:06NYRBrendan SmithAssists: Vinni Lettieri, Paul Carey · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 13:15PITDominik SimonAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 14:30PITPhil KesselGWGAssists: Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 12:33PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Phil Kessel, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 18:01PITCarl HagelinENAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:22NYRMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:00NYRBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P2 10:03NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:03PITJamie Oleksiak: Instigator2 min
- P2 10:03PITJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:03PITJamie Oleksiak: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:16NYRBoo Nieves: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Nash – Fast – Zibanejad13:09
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Vesey – Buchnevich9:04
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Carey – Nieves – Lettieri9:25
xG 0.14–0.54 (20%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Grabner – Zuccarello – Miller13:27
xG 0.54–1.24 (31%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Holden – Skjei2:28
xG 0.01–0.12 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Kampfer15:39
xG 0.42–0.55 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Skjei15:31
xG 0.45–0.80 (36%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Sprong – Simon10:14
xG 0.90–0.26 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Hagelin – Sheahan – Kuhnhackl2:05
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin10:55
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Reaves – Sheahan – Kuhnhackl4:56
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin18:15
xG 1.17–0.63 (65%)attempts 13–16goals 2–1
- Hunwick – Oleksiak7:48
xG 0.54–0.00 (99%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Schultz – Maatta14:17
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).