Mon, Jan 15, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Dallas Stars 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 012 | 210 | 08 | 12 | 332 |
| BOS | 010 | 113 | 19 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:49DALStephen JohnsAssists: Remi Elie, Brett Ritchie · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 8:15DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 16:28BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Riley Nash · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 11:21BOSRyan SpoonerAssists: David Krejci, Matt Grzelcyk · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 2:59DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:29BOSTorey Krug: Interference2 min
- P1 10:13DALAlexander Radulov: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:45DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:44DALTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:45BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin13:27
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Smith – Elie5:40
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa8:13
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Shore – Janmark9:21
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn17:02
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Johns – Honka9:02
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell16:28
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 10–18goals 1–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Spooner – DeBrusk9:20
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 17–4goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari4:00
xG 0.03–0.06 (29%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Nash – Heinen8:56
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak14:24
xG 0.31–0.68 (32%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Krug – Carlo12:13
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo4:54
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Chara – Carlo2:52
xG 0.02–0.01 (64%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).