Mon, Jan 15, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 114 | 08 | 134 |
| COL | 19 | 217 | 03 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:16COLMatt NietoAssists: Blake Comeau, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 9:39COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 12:55ANAChris WagnerAssists: Josh Manson, JT Brown · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 19:40COLColin WilsonPPAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:29ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:51COLMark Barberio: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:19ANAKorbinian Holzer: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:52ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:59ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:05COLAnton Lindholm: Elbowing2 min
- P3 6:32ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:52ANAOndrej Kase: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Ritchie – Kase9:20
xG 0.54–0.08 (87%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kesler – Silfverberg – Brown7:09
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell12:06
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Vermette – Grant – Wagner6:20
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Montour9:51
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler13:43
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Manson – Lindholm13:01
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Nieto9:51
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Wilson – Bourque – Jost6:41
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Greer4:54
xG 0.03–0.40 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:15
xG 0.26–0.69 (28%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Nemeth2:36
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Barberio – Nemeth10:46
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Barberio – Lindholm2:29
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).