Mon, Jan 15, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 27 | 26 | 07 | 14 | 524 |
| MTL | 213 | 122 | 119 | 02 | 456 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 6:29NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 8:01MTLNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Jakub Jerabek · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P1 12:10MTLPaul ByronAssists: David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 2:37NYIAdam PelechAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 5:36NYIJohn TavaresSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P2 19:16MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Jakub Jerabek · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–3
- P3 13:01MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.23 xG4–4
- OT 1:51NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.36 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:06MTLCharles Hudon: Holding2 min
- P2 4:46NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:05NYIBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
- P2 12:19MTLPaul Byron: Interference2 min
- P3 12:27NYIAdam Pelech: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:28NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Clutterbuck – Fritz4:38
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal2:06
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Lee – Quine12:31
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
- Nelson – Prince – Dal Colle11:01
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pelech3:24
xG 0.13–0.07 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Leddy – Aho2:29
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:50
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Pacioretty – Hudon9:26
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Galchenyuk – Drouin – Carr6:09
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Lehkonen11:24
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Froese – de la Rose – Carr2:30
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Jerabek15:28
xG 1.00–0.39 (72%)attempts 22–18goals 2–1
- Schlemko – Mete12:42
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Petry – Alzner15:35
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).