Tue, Jan 16, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
New Jersey Devils 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 113 | 317 | 012 | 442 |
| NYI | 19 | 08 | 09 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39NYIAnders LeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:20NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 12:58NJDDamon SeversonGWGAssists: Brian Gibbons, Stefan Noesen · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 14:24NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 18:20NJDTaylor HallAssists: Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:01NJDMiles Wood: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:18NYIAnders Lee: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:10NYIAlan Quine: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00NJDAndy Greene: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00NYIBrock Nelson: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:14NJDJohn Moore: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:05NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Wood – Zacha7:48
xG 0.71–0.03 (96%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier10:25
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Boyle – Gibbons – Noesen5:24
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Stafford – Zajac – Johansson9:10
xG 0.25–0.76 (25%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher8:29
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen14:55
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Severson – Butcher3:23
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Tavares – Lee2:14
xG 0.58–0.15 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Dal Colle – Barzal2:45
xG 0.02–0.01 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Lee – Nelson2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier6:05
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock4:48
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Leddy – Mayfield10:06
xG 0.76–0.51 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Pelech2:29
xG 0.23–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).