Tue, Jan 16, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 113 | 13 | 426 |
| DET | 16 | 14 | 05 | 215 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44DETTrevor DaleyAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Andreas Athanasiou · Tip-in, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 2:48DALRadek FaksaAssists: Esa Lindell, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 8:55DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: John Klingberg, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 11:43DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 14:08DALJason SpezzaPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 9:13DALMartin HanzalAssists: Remi Elie, Stephen Johns · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:56DETLuke Witkowski: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:50DETDominic Turgeon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:11DALMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:18DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:03DALStephen Johns: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:03DETLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 13:03DETLuke Witkowski: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Ritchie – Elie8:35
xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa9:52
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Hanzal – Ritchie – Janmark2:18
xG 0.10–0.07 (56%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin12:21
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell15:45
xG 0.72–0.23 (75%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- Johns – Honka9:52
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn16:30
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin10:41
xG 0.44–0.55 (44%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Nielsen – Tatar – Frk8:21
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha14:48
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green12:05
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Daley – DeKeyser14:13
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Green3:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).