Wed, Jan 17, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 011 | 212 | 333 |
| ANA | 014 | 414 | 15 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:26PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 4:17ANARickard RakellAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:42ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Ondrej Kase, Nick Ritchie · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 9:24ANAChris WagnerSHAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 18:28ANAOndrej KaseGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 8:35PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 14:06PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:59ANAHampus LindholmENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:47PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:32PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:32ANABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:04ANAHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:25PITJustin Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:15ANAJared Boll: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:17PITKris Letang: Embellishment2 min
- P2 19:17ANARickard Rakell: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:09ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:23PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:23ANAKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:23ANAKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Sheahan – Kuhnhackl7:27
xG 0.66–0.12 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Crosby – Kessel – Simon3:57
xG 0.44–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Sprong – Simon6:31
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin7:54
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Maatta11:55
xG 0.75–0.16 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin13:40
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Oleksiak12:26
xG 0.72–1.26 (36%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Ritchie – Kase9:54
xG 1.16–0.47 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Kesler – Silfverberg – Brown8:37
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell12:35
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Vermette – Boll – Wagner4:17
xG 0.01–0.43 (3%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:59
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Montour7:36
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler4:50
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).