Thu, Jan 18, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Boston Bruins 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 211 | 216 | 534 |
| NYI | 110 | 09 | 15 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 13:41BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 9:47BOSRyan SpoonerAssists: David Krejci · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 13:49BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 3:45BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 14:24NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 18:59BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: David Krejci, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 13:34NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:53BOSRiley Nash: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Spooner – DeBrusk10:30
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari9:10
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:43
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Backes – Nash – Heinen11:16
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy19:15
xG 1.31–0.52 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Krug – Carlo14:49
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Grzelcyk16:16
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Barzal – Beauvillier11:02
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Nelson – Prince – Dal Colle10:22
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Fritz8:05
xG 0.08–0.38 (18%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee14:30
xG 0.59–1.07 (36%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Aho13:30
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Hickey – Mayfield2:12
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pulock3:23
xG 0.11–0.33 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).