Thu, Jan 18, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 117 | 221 | 348 |
| COL | 39 | 17 | 16 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:03COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:01COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 18:14COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Matt Nieto, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 1:34COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 9:44SJSTimo MeierAssists: Kevin Labanc, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–4
- P3 0:29SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
- P3 4:53SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 16:46COLMatt NietoAssists: Blake Comeau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:29SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:47COLDominic Toninato: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:47COLNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:44COLAlexander Kerfoot: Interference2 min
- P2 11:45SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:26COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:46SJSJoonas Donskoi: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:35COLPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:24COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
- P3 13:59SJSBarclay Goodrow: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:01COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Meier won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Labanc6:01
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier8:44
xG 0.24–0.36 (39%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Boedker – Donskoi – Tierney8:53
xG 0.05–0.51 (9%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Ward – Goodrow – Karlsson7:44
xG 0.08–0.70 (10%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Ryan12:20
xG 0.37–0.41 (48%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Dillon – DeMelo9:46
xG 0.25–0.52 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun11:09
xG 0.42–0.83 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Bourque – Compher6:42
xG 0.54–0.05 (92%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:23
xG 0.76–0.55 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Yakupov – Toninato – Kerfoot5:50
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto8:06
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Nemeth8:57
xG 0.94–0.15 (86%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Girard7:20
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov9:29
xG 0.25–0.52 (32%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).