Sat, Jan 20, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 7, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 213 | 412 | 17 | 732 |
| BUF | 010 | 110 | 07 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03DALRemi ElieAssists: Mattias Janmark, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 14:09DALMattias JanmarkPPGWGAssists: Esa Lindell, Devin Shore · Tip-in, 0.35 xG2–0
- P2 6:25DALMattias JanmarkAssists: John Klingberg, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 8:54BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.31 xG3–1
- P2 9:32DALJamie BennAssists: John Klingberg, Esa Lindell · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 12:08DALEsa LindellAssists: Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–1
- P2 17:31DALRadek FaksaAssists: Stephen Johns, Antoine Roussel · Tip-in, 0.09 xG6–1
- P3 7:24DALTyler PitlickAssists: John Klingberg, Radek Faksa · Tip-in, 0.06 xG7–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:19BUFBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:44DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:26DALAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:57DALDevin Shore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:40BUFJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:40BUFJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:40DALDillon Heatherington: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:40DALDillon Heatherington: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:52BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P3 4:19DALDillon Heatherington: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin12:44
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Elie8:40
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa9:57
xG 0.25–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Hanzal – Ritchie – Shore5:33
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell13:27
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 16–3goals 3–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn15:21
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Johns – Heatherington14:52
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Eichel4:27
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Rodrigues3:40
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Wilson – Reinhart3:53
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Okposo – Eichel6:21
xG 0.19–0.16 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Nelson9:21
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- McCabe – Nelson6:58
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Gorges – Falk6:26
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).