Sat, Jan 20, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Rangers 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 112 | 011 | 128 |
| COL | 112 | 110 | 115 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:00COLErik JohnsonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 3:24COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 6:55NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 19:59COLMikko RantanenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 12:51NYRSteven Kampfer: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:27COLGabriel Bourque: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich13:13
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Carey – Holland – Fast11:40
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Catenacci – Lettieri9:39
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Miller – Vesey13:00
xG 0.10–0.52 (16%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Holden19:16
xG 0.63–0.63 (50%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Skjei16:34
xG 0.19–0.53 (26%)attempts 11–23goals 0–2
- Smith – DeAngelo14:40
xG 0.16–0.60 (21%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen16:15
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- Yakupov – Toninato – Kerfoot5:20
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Compher – Jost9:37
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto15:10
xG 0.29–0.44 (39%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov16:34
xG 0.62–0.20 (75%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Girard9:32
xG 0.32–0.07 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Nemeth2:02
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).