Sat, Jan 20, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 2, Calgary Flames 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 015 | 19 | 09 | 02 | 2 | 235 |
| CGY | 19 | 011 | 08 | 03 | 0 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:17CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 10:47WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WPG Bryan Little scored
- 2. CGY Mark Jankowski stopped
- 3. WPG Patrik Laine stopped
- 4. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 5. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:12WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:56CGYSean Monahan: Holding2 min
- P2 7:44WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P2 12:08CGYTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:52WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:55WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Perreault – Ehlers15:32
xG 1.11–0.31 (78%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Dano – Roslovic4:30
xG 0.09–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Armia – Copp – Tanev9:31
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Laine11:26
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien15:33
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Trouba – Morrissey16:34
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Myers3:03
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Backlund – Tkachuk12:00
xG 0.61–0.05 (92%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett10:51
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stajan – Lazar – Mangiapane6:33
xG 0.06–0.36 (13%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan14:09
xG 0.35–1.09 (24%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:45
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Stone – Kulak9:36
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Brodie – Hamilton2:53
xG 0.02–0.13 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).