Sat, Jan 20, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 08 | 29 | 330 |
| DET | 19 | 06 | 09 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:57CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–0
- P1 16:37DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Mike Green, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 6:54CARElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
- P3 18:02CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Brock McGinn, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.14 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:47DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 2:57DETDanny DeKeyser: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:31CARHaydn Fleury: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:06DETXavier Ouellet: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:15CARTeuvo Teravainen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Ryan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Rask – McGinn12:56
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan13:22
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris8:14
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Lindholm13:50
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin17:14
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin18:14
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Fleury13:25
xG 0.34–0.64 (34%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin13:12
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha14:08
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Tatar – Frk – Turgeon2:00
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Booth – Tatar8:17
xG 0.22–0.65 (25%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green12:22
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser6:40
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Ouellet10:29
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).