Sat, Jan 20, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 218 | 09 | 113 | 340 |
| NSH | 115 | 39 | 05 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36NSHKevin FialaAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Nick Bonino · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 11:16FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 16:33FLADerek MacKenzieAssists: Colton Sceviour, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 1:24NSHNick BoninoAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 10:53NSHKevin FialaAssists: Nick Bonino, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 16:29NSHP.K. SubbanGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 8:34FLAKeith YandleAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:34FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:34NSHScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:54NSHMiikka Salomaki: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:06FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:06NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:32FLAJared McCann: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov14:28
xG 0.75–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Brickley – Trocheck9:27
xG 0.66–0.41 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley5:40
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- McGinn – Bjugstad – McCann9:03
xG 0.18–0.39 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Weegar13:37
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad18:56
xG 1.15–0.71 (62%)attempts 19–19goals 1–2
- Matheson – Weegar2:37
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Jarnkrok – Fiala9:36
xG 0.76–0.18 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 3–0
- Turris – Smith – Aberg10:53
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons9:25
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Johansen – Arvidsson8:52
xG 0.10–1.16 (8%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Emelin – Subban16:15
xG 0.68–0.78 (47%)attempts 13–21goals 2–1
- Josi – Ellis19:23
xG 0.71–0.86 (45%)attempts 23–17goals 0–1
- Irwin – Bitetto16:08
xG 0.53–0.68 (44%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).