Sat, Jan 20, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 016 | 08 | 132 |
| SJS | 114 | 011 | 111 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:18PITConor ShearyAssists: Dominik Simon, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 17:44SJSTimo MeierAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 1:53SJSTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:19SJSMelker Karlsson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:23PITJean-Sebastien Dea: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:12SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:55PITDominik Simon: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:44SJSDylan DeMelo: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:49PITJamie Oleksiak: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:46SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:46PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Meier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Kessel – Simon3:00
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kessel – Sheahan – Guentzel6:53
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Kuhnhackl – Guentzel2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Kuhnhackl – Dea3:57
xG 0.01–0.02 (27%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin15:09
xG 0.89–0.36 (71%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Maatta17:24
xG 0.41–0.72 (36%)attempts 24–16goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Oleksiak11:39
xG 0.24–0.70 (25%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Labanc10:39
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Boedker – Donskoi – Tierney9:28
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Ward – Goodrow – Karlsson6:42
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier12:15
xG 0.40–0.77 (34%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan17:33
xG 1.14–0.40 (74%)attempts 24–17goals 1–0
- Dillon – DeMelo9:24
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun17:19
xG 0.44–1.18 (27%)attempts 15–28goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).