Sat, Jan 20, 2018·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 7, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 319 | 114 | 313 | 746 |
| CHI | 113 | 18 | 118 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:35NYIAnthony BeauvillierPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 10:31NYIJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Pulock, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 19:04NYIRyan PulockAssists: Alan Quine, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 1:25NYIAnthony BeauvillierPPGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.22 xG4–1
- P2 18:27CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 1:52NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Ross Johnston, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 4:58CHIPatrick KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 7:10NYIAnders LeeAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.10 xG6–3
- P3 10:30NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.05 xG7–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:51CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:13NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:03CHIBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:46CHITommy Wingels: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:07CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:38NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:38CHIRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:38NYIRoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:38CHIRyan Hartman: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Barzal – Beauvillier11:41
xG 1.53–0.48 (76%)attempts 24–17goals 1–1
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Fritz9:49
xG 0.66–0.25 (72%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Nelson – Quine – Johnston5:07
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 2–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:51
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock12:41
xG 0.94–0.51 (65%)attempts 16–17goals 3–1
- Leddy – Mayfield16:32
xG 1.37–1.01 (57%)attempts 20–24goals 1–1
- Pelech – Aho15:16
xG 0.66–0.50 (57%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Toews – Saad – Duclair11:44
xG 0.61–0.71 (46%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Bouma – Wingels – Hinostroza2:24
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – DeBrincat – Kampf4:22
xG 0.13–0.47 (21%)attempts 5–5goals 0–3
- Sharp – Kane – Schmaltz8:13
xG 0.26–0.69 (28%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Oesterle19:37
xG 0.73–0.42 (63%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson16:33
xG 1.09–1.33 (45%)attempts 23–23goals 3–1
- Forsling – Rutta10:09
xG 0.21–1.13 (16%)attempts 8–17goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).