Sat, Jan 20, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 16 | 111 | 223 |
| MIN | 210 | 111 | 214 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Eric Staal · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:24MINZach PariseAssists: Ryan Suter, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 7:11MINNate ProsserGWGAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Kyle Rau · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 15:35TBLBrayden PointAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 3:10MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Matt Cullen, Tyler Ennis · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 6:37TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 19:01MINJason ZuckerENAssists: Devan Dubnyk · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:58MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:58TBLJake Dotchin: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:58MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:04TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:41MINDaniel Winnik: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:20TBLSlater Koekkoek: Holding2 min
- P3 5:15MINGustav Olofsson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:15MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50TBLJake Dotchin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov9:28
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette7:24
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Gourde2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Point3:26
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Stralman4:32
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Girardi – Koekkoek2:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr3:47
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund14:17
xG 1.07–0.14 (88%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Foligno4:12
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Coyle – Rau – Eriksson Ek6:31
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Cullen – Coyle – Eriksson Ek3:09
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:29
xG 1.11–0.47 (70%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon17:48
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Prosser – Olofsson10:15
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).