Sun, Jan 21, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Washington Capitals 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 110 | 04 | 11 | 223 |
| WSH | 010 | 110 | 08 | 00 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:12PHIMichael RafflAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 19:44WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 0:27PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:07WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:10WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:15PHITyrell Goulbourne: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:00PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:49PHIJakub Voracek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:49WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:20WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:40PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Laughton – Goulbourne7:12
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl9:42
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Patrick9:36
xG 0.19–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny10:18
xG 0.30–1.29 (19%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Provorov14:03
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hagg14:23
xG 0.22–0.53 (29%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas13:57
xG 0.44–0.91 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky12:56
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Vrana4:47
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:36
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Stephenson8:14
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov17:32
xG 1.09–0.49 (69%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- Carlson – Djoos10:17
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Orpik – Carlson4:17
xG 0.01–0.05 (13%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).