Mon, Jan 22, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 3, New Jersey Devils 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 19 | 19 | 330 |
| NJD | 011 | 012 | 014 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36DETTyler BertuzziGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 18:12DETDavid BoothAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Martin Frk · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 11:02DETDylan LarkinAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P2 2:15NJDPavel Zacha: Holding2 min
- P2 6:33DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:57DETDylan Larkin: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 11:32NJDBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:46DETNick Jensen: Holding2 min
- P3 2:11DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min
- P3 12:41DETGustav Nyquist: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha12:32
xG 0.79–0.42 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin6:54
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Booth – Tatar6:48
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green14:01
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser10:46
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Green2:52
xG 0.02–0.01 (71%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Bratt – Hischier8:58
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stafford – Johansson – Zacha6:37
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Zajac – Johansson3:27
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Coleman – Noesen – Wood2:01
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Butcher2:17
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Moore2:52
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Lovejoy2:35
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).