Mon, Jan 22, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 112 | 015 | 138 |
| MIN | 114 | 011 | 211 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45MINZach PariseAssists: Eric Staal, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 9:38OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Christopher DiDomenico · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 4:59MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 10:09MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:50OTTBobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:41MINRyan Suter: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:26MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:00OTTFredrik Claesson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDiDomenico – Hoffman – Duchene9:37
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Smith – White12:24
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene4:03
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Dzingel6:27
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Borowiecki2:15
xG 0.02–0.02 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson2:34
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Chabot15:53
xG 0.64–0.90 (42%)attempts 17–20goals 1–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Winnik11:36
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund12:14
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Cullen – Stewart – Foligno6:30
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Coyle – Rau – Eriksson Ek11:08
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Olofsson9:43
xG 0.55–0.08 (87%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon18:30
xG 0.84–0.60 (58%)attempts 19–21goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba20:27
xG 0.90–0.68 (57%)attempts 27–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).