Mon, Jan 22, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Buffalo Sabres 2, Calgary Flames 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 08 | 011 | 12 | 233 |
| CGY | 113 | 012 | 08 | 00 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:00CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 8:24BUFScott WilsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- OT 1:30BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:11CGYCurtis Lazar: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:11BUFNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 6:51BUFJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:27BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:47BUFNick Baptiste: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:46CGYDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P3 15:46CGYMichael Stone: Interference2 min
- P3 19:27CGYMikael Backlund: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Wilson – Reinhart9:29
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Eichel13:18
xG 0.82–0.60 (58%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Pominville – Kane – Larsson8:22
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Nolan – Baptiste – Rodrigues8:04
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – McCabe7:02
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen13:55
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- McCabe – Nelson10:18
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Stajan – Hrivik – Lazar5:46
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backlund – Tkachuk14:20
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett9:25
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:43
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton14:43
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie17:16
xG 0.18–0.45 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Stone – Kulak12:59
xG 0.28–1.04 (21%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).