Tue, Jan 23, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 1, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 112 | 013 | 134 |
| DAL | 112 | 212 | 315 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:45DALDevin ShorePPAssists: John Klingberg, Esa Lindell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 6:43DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Greg Pateryn · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 9:57DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–3
- P2 15:47FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Denis Malgin · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
- P3 5:16DALMattias JanmarkAssists: John Klingberg, Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 12:06DALAlexander RadulovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 12:26DALTyler PitlickAssists: Antoine Roussel, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–6
Penalties (31)
- P1 3:48FLAKeith Yandle: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:48DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:49DALRadek Faksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:49FLAMicheal Haley: Instigator2 min
- P1 5:49FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:49FLAMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min
- P1 7:59FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:59DALTyler Seguin: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:59DALAlexander Radulov: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:11DALEsa Lindell: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:25FLADerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 14:25DALRadek Faksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:25DALDillon Heatherington: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:25FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:25FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:25FLAAlexander Petrovic: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 14:25DALDillon Heatherington: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 16:31DALJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:09FLAMicheal Haley: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:47FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:50FLAMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:50FLAMicheal Haley: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 13:50DALJason Dickinson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:51FLAConnor Brickley: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:14DALRadek Faksa: Elbowing2 min
- P3 15:12DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
- P3 15:17FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:38FLAConnor Brickley: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:38DALBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:01FLAJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:01DALStephen Johns: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Trocheck – McCann5:08
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Brickley – Bjugstad – Malgin8:34
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Barkov2:32
xG 0.05–0.28 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–2
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov7:24
xG 0.11–0.74 (13%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Petrovic – Weegar2:34
xG 0.02–0.02 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson6:18
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Weegar3:51
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Pitlick – Faksa7:44
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Elie4:50
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin8:58
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Elie2:18
xG 0.04–0.02 (63%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn13:13
xG 1.35–0.23 (85%)attempts 19–18goals 3–0
- Klingberg – Lindell12:13
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Johns2:30
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).