Tue, Jan 23, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 5, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 115 | 412 | 07 | 534 |
| EDM | 08 | 013 | 012 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:56BUFSam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 0:17BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Scott Wilson, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 7:25BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Kyle Okposo, Jack Eichel · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 11:39BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–0
- P2 17:25BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.14 xG5–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:10BUFJake McCabe: Holding2 min
- P1 13:47EDMAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:26EDMJujhar Khaira: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:40EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:21EDMDrake Caggiula: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Wilson – Reinhart11:42
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Eichel10:49
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Nolan – Rodrigues10:41
xG 0.38–0.51 (42%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Pominville – Kane – Larsson13:08
xG 0.16–0.35 (32%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Antipin17:13
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen17:57
xG 0.83–0.94 (47%)attempts 14–29goals 1–0
- Falk – Nelson12:27
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Khaira – Slepyshev6:26
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Slepyshev – McDavid6:27
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – McDavid – Caggiula6:53
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Strome – Khaira – Caggiula3:55
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell12:15
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse16:07
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Klefbom – Benning16:52
xG 0.67–1.00 (40%)attempts 24–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).