Wed, Jan 24, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 111 | 011 | 113 | 11 | 336 |
| CHI | 117 | 07 | 112 | 00 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:29CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 16:37TORMitch MarnerAssists: Jake Gardiner, Ron Hainsey · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 4:58TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 7:55CHINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Artem Anisimov, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- OT 0:06TORWilliam NylanderGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.35 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:18TORTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:46CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:23TORPatrick Marleau: Holding2 min
- P2 12:52CHINick Schmaltz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:16TORLeo Komarov: Elbowing2 min
- P3 3:23CHITomas Jurco: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:45TORMitch Marner: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:53CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:06CHIDuncan Keith: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Marner12:25
xG 0.94–0.63 (60%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews12:45
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Moore – Komarov – Kapanen6:36
xG 0.03–0.25 (11%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown8:48
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Gardiner14:48
xG 1.09–0.41 (72%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Polak – Borgman2:15
xG 0.08–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carrick – Dermott2:56
xG 0.03–0.06 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Anisimov – Hartman7:49
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kane – Saad – Schmaltz13:11
xG 0.66–0.56 (54%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Jurco – Hinostroza – Kampf8:10
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Duclair – DeBrincat12:30
xG 0.79–0.79 (50%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Oesterle17:01
xG 1.04–0.48 (68%)attempts 24–16goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kempny10:28
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson14:10
xG 0.56–0.94 (37%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).