Wed, Jan 24, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 2, Calgary Flames 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 06 | 08 | 19 | 14 | 227 |
| CGY | 18 | 016 | 07 | 00 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:03CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 4:09LAKJake MuzzinPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 4:33LAKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:00CGYCurtis Lazar: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:01CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 15:47LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:57LAKAlec Martinez: Delaying game2 min
- P2 5:09CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:31LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:31CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:31LAKKyle Clifford: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:44CGYSam Bennett: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:24LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:24LAKDrew Doughty: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:24CGYMikael Backlund: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:23CGYMark Jankowski: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Mitchell – Andreoff3:11
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo10:21
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Brown – Pearson – Kempe9:07
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Lewis – Clifford – Amadio5:03
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty5:11
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gravel – LaDue2:01
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – Gravel9:02
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:06
xG 1.09–0.65 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett6:54
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stajan – Hrivik – Lazar6:17
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backlund – Tkachuk9:45
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:09
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie14:30
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Stone – Kulak7:48
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).