Thu, Jan 25, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 03 | 311 | 28 | 522 |
| PHI | 09 | 011 | 117 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:25TBLBrayden PointAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 9:56TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Matthew Peca, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P2 17:29TBLRyan CallahanSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 13:18PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 14:05TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 17:11TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:14PHIMichael Raffl: Holding2 min
- P2 6:02TBLTyler Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:57TBLDan Girardi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:04TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:27TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:50PHIScott Laughton: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Peca – Gourde9:23
xG 0.61–0.07 (89%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov3:15
xG 0.43–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Stamkos – Namestnikov10:05
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point11:10
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Koekkoek13:29
xG 0.76–0.23 (77%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Stralman – Dotchin14:31
xG 0.82–0.53 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 3–0
- Koekkoek – Dotchin3:22
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny13:11
xG 0.81–0.12 (87%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Patrick7:15
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl9:07
xG 0.21–0.21 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Goulbourne4:11
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov14:26
xG 0.58–0.06 (91%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov3:01
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hagg13:19
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).