Thu, Jan 25, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 213 | 39 | 17 | 629 |
| MTL | 06 | 414 | 111 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Justin Williams, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 8:03CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Victor Rask, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–0
- P2 6:08MTLCharles HudonAssists: Jeff Petry, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 6:47MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 7:06CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Noah Hanifin, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 7:35CARTeuvo TeravainenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–2
- P2 8:59MTLCharles HudonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P2 18:42MTLJeff PetryAssists: Max Pacioretty, Charles Hudon · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P2 19:54CARDerek RyanAssists: Noah Hanifin, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–4
- P3 9:31MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–5
- P3 9:41CARJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Noah Hanifin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG6–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:31CARMarcus Kruger: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:40MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:55MTLJacob de la Rose: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:55CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:29CARCam Ward: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:20MTLKarl Alzner: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:24CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Rask – Teravainen11:27
xG 0.87–0.08 (91%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan12:01
xG 0.88–0.42 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe7:24
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Staal – McGinn – Lindholm10:58
xG 0.03–0.54 (5%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin15:27
xG 1.27–0.08 (94%)attempts 18–8goals 5–0
- Faulk – Fleury15:25
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
- Slavin – Pesce12:50
xG 0.26–0.85 (23%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Lehkonen12:22
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Froese – Shaw – de la Rose5:48
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Pacioretty – Hudon11:06
xG 0.49–0.75 (39%)attempts 13–15goals 3–2
- Deslauriers – Galchenyuk – Drouin12:49
xG 0.40–0.83 (33%)attempts 13–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Alzner18:02
xG 0.85–0.61 (58%)attempts 15–19goals 2–1
- Schlemko – Mete15:01
xG 0.30–0.48 (38%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Benn – Jerabek11:05
xG 0.12–0.90 (12%)attempts 10–14goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).