Thu, Jan 25, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 020 | 110 | 214 | 344 |
| OTT | 17 | 09 | 17 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:00OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 11:35BOSDanton HeinenPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 1:58BOSTim SchallerSHAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 2:18OTTRyan DzingelPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 8:41BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner, Kevan Miller · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:43BOSFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:46BOSAnders Bjork: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:19OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:37BOSFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:25BOSDavid Krejci: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Spooner – DeBrusk13:02
xG 0.62–0.04 (94%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Pastrnak – Heinen5:25
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Vatrano6:39
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Backes – Nash – Heinen5:39
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk14:12
xG 0.96–0.16 (86%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Chara – Carlo15:21
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug15:38
xG 0.78–0.30 (73%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Burrows – Ryan – Duchene2:02
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – DiDomenico – Dumont5:05
xG 0.10–0.46 (19%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene6:31
xG 0.08–0.49 (14%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – White12:31
xG 0.09–0.58 (13%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – Claesson7:03
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson4:39
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson3:38
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).