Thu, Jan 25, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 217 | 119 | 446 |
| FLA | 111 | 19 | 014 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:02FLADenis MalginAssists: Jared McCann · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 17:25WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:40FLADenis MalginAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 7:51WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Brooks Orpik, Madison Bowey · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 17:38WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 1:52WSHBrett ConnollyPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Lars Eller · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:34WSHBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min
- P1 5:35WSHLars Eller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:35WSHMadison Bowey: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:53FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:13FLADenis Malgin: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:33FLAAlexander Petrovic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:33FLARadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:33FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:33WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:02WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:51FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:56FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Chiasson – Stephenson7:54
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:33
xG 0.87–0.62 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky8:19
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana6:42
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Djoos9:07
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Orpik – Carlson3:14
xG 0.07–0.01 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov12:49
xG 0.66–0.64 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin8:45
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley3:59
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – McCann3:22
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov8:44
xG 0.59–0.77 (43%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson10:12
xG 0.48–0.06 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Weegar12:51
xG 0.37–0.65 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad12:24
xG 0.61–0.94 (39%)attempts 13–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).