Thu, Jan 25, 2018·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 115 | 014 | 137 |
| STL | 117 | 19 | 18 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:53STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 11:28STLBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 17:09COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Tyson Jost, Anton Lindholm · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 18:40STLAlexander SteenAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:24STLJaden Schwartz: Holding2 min
- P1 9:04COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:11COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:17COLPatrik Nemeth: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:53
xG 0.89–0.59 (60%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Jost9:32
xG 0.54–0.43 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto10:52
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Yakupov – Jost2:09
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov4:04
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Girard7:30
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard4:33
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Tarasenko – Barbashev10:16
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Stastny – Sobotka – Tarasenko2:04
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Jaskin6:46
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Thompson9:10
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Dunn4:31
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn5:39
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson19:41
xG 0.87–1.05 (45%)attempts 19–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).