Thu, Jan 25, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 215 | 16 | 429 |
| DAL | 08 | 115 | 017 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:50TORNazem KadriAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:55TORZach HymanGWGAssists: William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–0
- P2 9:29TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 17:43DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 2:38TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Slap, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:43TORWilliam Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:10DALDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P2 4:19TORConnor Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:19DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:38DALRemi Elie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:04TORAndreas Borgman: Delaying game2 min
- P3 12:47TORZach Hyman: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown10:14
xG 0.82–0.27 (75%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Moore – Komarov – Kapanen7:29
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner10:32
xG 0.56–0.57 (49%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews12:08
xG 0.64–0.87 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Polak3:07
xG 0.58–0.07 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Carrick – Borgman13:06
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Dermott2:10
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin15:59
xG 0.96–0.52 (65%)attempts 23–15goals 1–0
- Shore – Janmark – Dickinson3:36
xG 0.21–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Shore – Janmark7:33
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Elie3:57
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Johns2:30
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell18:03
xG 0.92–0.65 (59%)attempts 25–18goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Pateryn14:20
xG 0.40–0.34 (55%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).