Thu, Jan 25, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New York Islanders 2, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 111 | 15 | 225 |
| VGK | 013 | 09 | 117 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:01NYIRoss JohnstonAssists: Ryan Pulock, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 8:21NYIJordan EberleGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 14:53VGKErik HaulaPPAssists: David Perron, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P3 0:14VGKReilly Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:37NYIBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
- P3 12:56NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Barzal – Beauvillier13:28
xG 0.88–0.74 (54%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Nelson2:32
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Quine – Johnston5:49
xG 0.07–0.02 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee15:48
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock13:56
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Pelech – Aho14:01
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield19:56
xG 0.51–0.74 (41%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:49
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Carrier – Bellemare7:00
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch10:47
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Neal – Perron – Haula12:39
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Schmidt17:07
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore17:31
xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Miller – Hunt13:23
xG 0.73–0.81 (47%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).