Thu, Jan 25, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Rangers 6, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 311 | 16 | 629 |
| SJS | 27 | 17 | 214 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45NYRKevin HayesAssists: J.T. Miller, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 6:45SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 10:56SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Kevin Labanc, Joakim Ryan · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 17:53NYRJesper FastAssists: Michael Grabner, Peter Holland · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 2:36SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Kevin Labanc, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 11:04NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 12:16NYRRyan McDonaghPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P2 17:09NYRBrady SkjeiSHUnassisted · Deflected, 0.28 xG5–3
- P3 10:51SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Justin Braun, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 18:10NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–4
- P3 19:10SJSTomas HertlAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.32 xG6–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:40SJSBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:23SJSTimo Meier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:15NYRBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 18:49SJSDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hayes – Miller12:34
xG 1.10–0.16 (87%)attempts 18–5goals 3–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:13
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
- Desharnais – Carey – Vesey8:55
xG 0.19–0.64 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Grabner – Holland – Fast11:55
xG 0.16–0.82 (17%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeAngelo11:36
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Staal – Skjei16:57
xG 0.80–0.86 (48%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Holden15:55
xG 0.84–0.91 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 3–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Labanc13:10
xG 0.91–0.19 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Boedker – Donskoi – Karlsson2:11
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Tierney – Karlsson8:28
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Ward – Sorensen – Goodrow6:45
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan16:30
xG 0.73–0.54 (57%)attempts 12–16goals 2–2
- Burns – Dillon2:07
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo11:42
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).