Tue, Jan 30, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 013 | 223 | 06 | 242 |
| PIT | 111 | 110 | 310 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:09PITBryan RustAssists: Riley Sheahan, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 10:00SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Mikkel Boedker · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:35SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 19:55PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 6:01PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 13:58PITBryan RustAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 18:47PITEvgeni MalkinENAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:22PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:22SJSMelker Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P1 15:49SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P2 0:54PITIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:02PITJustin Schultz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:12SJSBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:30PITPhil Kessel: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:07PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:48SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:52PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Pavelski – Boedker – Tierney9:40
xG 0.48–0.60 (44%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Couture – Labanc – Meier9:17
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Hertl – Karlsson10:40
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Ward – Sorensen – Goodrow8:03
xG 0.16–0.43 (26%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan11:17
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Braun – Ryan2:46
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Braun – Dillon2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin10:35
xG 0.41–0.06 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Kuhnhackl3:15
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Crosby – Sheary – Simon8:40
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Kessel – Sheahan – Guentzel8:08
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin13:08
xG 0.92–0.25 (79%)attempts 22–9goals 2–0
- Schultz – Maatta11:04
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Cole – Oleksiak13:06
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).